Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84cf…5ad0 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$18,352 (+21%) realized +$18,305 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$1,424per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$3,297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,109
7 days+$5,008
14 days−$11,345
30 days−$11,345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$12,491
other 30% +$4,442
sports 4% +$447
crypto 3% +$351
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -3.6% -12.8% 55% 55% +8.4%
≤30d 36 -6.0% -14.9% 53% 53% -31.0%
≤90d 40 -12.8% -21.1% 48% 48% -36.1%
all 55 +3.3% -6.5% 45% 44% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 44% +9.7%
10% -15.5% 38% -0.8%
15% -23.7% 25% -10.4%
20% -31.1% 15% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,259) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,711 vs −$836 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$3,297
Realized+$18,305
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions6
Markets (closed)55 / 61
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,424
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1,000 $1,011 +$11 (+1%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $250 $274 +$24 (+10%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $250 $262 +$12 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $250 $253 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $505 −$65 -13%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $582 +$259 +44%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1,009 +$427 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $511 +$664 +130%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $203 +$142 +70%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $2,850 +$786 +28%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $1,993 +$545 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,026 +$287 +28%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,517 +$712 +47%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,048 −$106 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,718 +$574 +33%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,516 +$501 +33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $685 +$373 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $244 −$56 -23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,035 +$243 +23%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$116 +57%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,016 +$808 +80%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,413 +$498 +35%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $505 −$17 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 18 $504 −$14 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 −$198 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 +$199 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 −$500 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 −$22 -4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 +$98 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $504 +$210 +42%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$252 +50%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 16 $19,678 −$14,984 -76%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $2,253 −$1,622 -72%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $1,259 −$1,046 -83%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $2,967 −$2,508 -84%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 02 $573 −$573 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $1,634 −$449 -28%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $1,108 +$26 +2%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 15 $9,223 −$1,026 -11%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $1,103 −$26 -2%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $750 −$62 -8%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 08 $200 +$25 +12%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 08 $100 −$87 -86%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 08 $134 −$52 -39%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $576 +$76 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 58¢ $441 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 95¢ $841 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $582 7h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,436 8h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,009 8h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $254 21h
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $203 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $280 27h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,812 27h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,824 28h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,007 28h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $543 29h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,299 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,299 30h
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1,993 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $510 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $153 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,206 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,024 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,517 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,942 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $79 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $254 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $254 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $252 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $252 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,297.07 · official $3,297.07 (match) · 365 history records