Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x84cf…2f63
sports · 240 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,414,445 -813%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37,576 · open +$58,429
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$807,304
Realized+$37,576
Unrealized+$58,429
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$635
Open positions456
Markets (closed)11 / 240
History coverage1d
Avg bet$725
Trades / day3463.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 456 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37,576
7 days+$37,576
14 days+$37,576
30 days+$37,576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $11,918 $66,153 +$54,235 (+455%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $60,947 $63,022 +$2,076 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $48,410 $53,554 +$5,144 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $44,297 $43,798 −$500 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $34,415 $34,931 +$517 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17,745 $28,600 +$10,856 (+61%)
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? No 97¢ 97¢ $27,137 $27,195 +$58 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $25,362 $25,170 −$192 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 66¢ 64¢ $21,379 $20,603 −$775 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 54¢ 56¢ $19,512 $20,092 +$580 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $14,651 $14,691 +$40 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15,655 $14,335 −$1,320 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12,619 $13,911 +$1,292 (+10%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $12,629 $12,688 +$60 (+0%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $12,516 $12,388 −$129 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $11,728 $11,390 −$338 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $11,484 $10,125 −$1,359 (-12%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $9,919 $9,863 −$56 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53¢ 60¢ $8,331 $9,510 +$1,179 (+14%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $9,467 $9,490 +$22 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $8,354 $9,317 +$962 (+12%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $9,580 $8,993 −$587 (-6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 74¢ $8,785 $8,726 −$59 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9,583 $8,430 −$1,153 (-12%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 20¢ 18¢ $8,952 $7,711 −$1,241 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,126 −$1,117 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 +$65 +1907%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $811 −$806 -99%
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 14 $9 +$215 +2330%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $381 −$375 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$9 -59%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $94 −$25 -26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $314 +$4,158 +1323%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $65 +$10,442 +16073%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $33,088 +$7,783 +24%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $2,238 +$17,245 +770%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 76% +$55,627
sports 15% +$38,199
crypto 8% +$1,216
politics 0% +$962
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 0m
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 77¢ $19 0m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 0m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 0m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 0m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 0m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 0m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $47 0m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $75 1m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 1m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $3 1m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 1m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 1m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $2 1m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $11 1m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $4 1m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $199 2m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $15 2m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 2m
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $46 2m
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $15 2m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $10 2m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $49 3m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+619.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +694.7% +619.0% 55% 55% +57.8%
≤30d 11 +694.7% +619.0% 55% 55% +57.8%
≤90d 11 +694.7% +619.0% 55% 55% +57.8%
all 11 +694.7% +619.0% 55% 55% +57.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3463.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +619.0% 55% +57.8%
10% +550.2% 55% +42.7%
15% ← realistic here +487.4% 45% +28.9%
20% +429.8% 45% +16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $807,303.66 · official $808,096.65 (match) · 3500 history records