Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:04:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x84d0…95ba sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,414 (-54%) realized −$1,512 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$759
14 days−$759
30 days−$1,274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$830
other 15% −$328
crypto 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$182 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$1,390
Realized−$1,512
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage28d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Ben Shelton 37¢ 46¢ $1,106 $1,344 +$238 (+22%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $187 $47 −$140 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $47 −$46 -97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $144 −$142 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -94%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Jun 16 $144 −$140 -97%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $199 −$198 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $219 −$215 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Jun 01 $515 −$515 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 37¢ $1,126 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $47 13h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $144 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2d
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain BUY Lucas Poullain 6¢ $144 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $193 2d
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Benjamin Willwerth 13¢ $31 3d
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Benjamin Willwerth 28¢ $8 3d
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Benjamin Willwerth 28¢ $45 3d
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Benjamin Willwerth 28¢ $56 3d
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Benjamin Willwerth 28¢ $59 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $219 5d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 7¢ $2 27d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 7¢ $1 27d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 8¢ $16 27d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 8¢ $461 27d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 8¢ $0 27d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 8¢ $34 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,390.50 · official $1,390.50 (match) · 28 history records