Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:59:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84d6…12b3 crypto 800 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate79%630W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +7.3% -2.9% 87% 10% -8.0%
≤30d 213 -2.5% -11.8% 81% 9% -10.2%
≤90d 800 -3.1% -12.3% 79% 16% -9.7%
all 800 -3.1% -12.3% 79% 16% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 16% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 9% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 6% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses630 / 170
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)800 / 800
History coverage64d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 800 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +441%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 45m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2004 history records