Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84d9…f792 other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$333 (-10%) realized −$332 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%32W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$456
14 days−$399
30 days−$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$420
sports 15% +$41
crypto 4% −$13
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -20.0% -27.6% 62% 54% -26.0%
≤30d 58 +0.9% -8.7% 55% 48% -21.0%
≤90d 58 +0.9% -8.7% 55% 48% -21.0%
all 58 +0.9% -8.7% 55% 48% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 48% -21.0%
10% -17.5% 28% -28.6%
15% -25.5% 22% -35.5%
20% -32.8% 17% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$36 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$332
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses32 / 26
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage12d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$43 -42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 +$18 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$12 +24%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 +$9 +18%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $201 +$56 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 +$11 +23%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
XRP Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$7 +351%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $58 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $100 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $100 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 35h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $101 35h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $50 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $101 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $41 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $100 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $119 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $100 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $100 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $108 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $201 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 6d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 100¢ $59 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $50 7d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 84¢ $50 7d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $257 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.19 · official $99.19 (match) · 150 history records