Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
84 0x84da…424e crypto 82 markets active 1d ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate65%52W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$2
other 19% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -18.0% -25.8% 71% 24% -14.9%
≤30d 74 -12.8% -21.1% 68% 45% -8.2%
≤90d 80 -14.6% -22.8% 65% 44% -13.8%
all 80 -14.6% -22.8% 65% 44% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 44% -13.8%
10% -30.2% 26% -22.1%
15% -36.9% 20% -29.6%
20% -43.1% 10% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses52 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage38d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 27 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 27 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 27 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 26 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 26 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 25 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 25 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.27 · official $24.27 (match) · 203 history records