Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84dc…1b74 world 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%34W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$4
other 24% +$1
politics 13% $0
sports 12% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% +$1
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.0% -10.4% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 27 +20.0% +8.6% 33% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 77 +6.9% -3.2% 34% 1% -9.5%
all 95 +4.8% -5.1% 36% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 2% -9.5%
10% -14.2% 1% -18.2%
15% -22.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -30.1% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses34 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage486d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $34 $31 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $13 $0 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $43 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $93 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $88 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $32 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $160 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $23 −$1 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $93 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $5 −$1 -11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $47 −$3 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $2 $0 +8%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $8 +$1 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $35 +$1 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $1 $0 -19%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $85 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $37 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $7 $0 +7%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 -6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $25 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $25 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $13 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $13 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $28 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $4 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $24 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $25 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $15 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $44 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $43 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $35 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $0 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $21 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $22 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $31 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $29 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $2 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $44 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $43 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.88 · official $30.88 (match) · 367 history records