Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
84 0x84dd…a7dd world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$5
other 16% +$8
politics 8% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.5% -13.6% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -1.8% -11.2% 35% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 17 -1.8% -11.2% 35% 6% -9.0%
all 32 +1.9% -7.8% 41% 9% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 9% -8.1%
10% -16.6% 6% -16.9%
15% -24.7% 3% -24.9%
20% -32.1% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.45 per $1 lost it wins $7.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage255d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $54 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -37%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $74 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $27 +$4 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $8 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 +1%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Dec 21 $2 +$1 +76%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 -14%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $26 +$7 +27%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 13 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 11 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $13 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $24 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $36 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $23 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $12 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.85 · official $38.85 (match) · 140 history records