Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
84 0x84dd…6938 other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$503 (+13%) realized +$519 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days+$408
14 days+$407
30 days+$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$435
crypto 27% −$109
sports 4% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +40.5% +27.1% 42% 42% +1.0%
≤30d 25 +38.3% +25.1% 40% 40% +1.0%
≤90d 25 +38.3% +25.1% 40% 40% +1.0%
all 25 +38.3% +25.1% 40% 40% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.1% 40% +1.0%
10% +13.2% 36% -8.7%
15% +2.2% 32% -17.5%
20% -7.8% 28% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$20 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized+$519
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage10d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 −$5 -9%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +864%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$42 -82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 +$46 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,012 −$109 -11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 −$16 -32%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -44%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$35 +69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,017 +$138 +14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $69 −$50 -74%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,019 +$414 +41%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +246%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +299%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$25 +242%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $104 20m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 30¢ $47 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $52 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $97 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $51 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 86¢ $903 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,012 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 53¢ $34 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $51 3d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,155 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $18 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $69 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,017 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,433 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,019 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.17 · official $195.62 (match) · 57 history records