Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84e0…e90d sports 48 markets active 11d ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,172 (-1446%) realized −$2,172 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate69%27W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,099
7 days−$3,099
14 days−$3,085
30 days−$3,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% +$10
sports 26% +$16
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 28 +18.7% +7.4% 57% 50% -98.9%
≤90d 39 +15.9% +4.9% 69% 41% -95.6%
all 39 +15.9% +4.9% 69% 41% -95.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 41% -95.6%
10% -5.1% 38% -96.0%
15% -14.3% 36% -96.4%
20% -22.7% 33% -96.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -95% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$258 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses27 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 48
History coverage68d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 29 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 29 $902 −$902 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $394 −$394 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 29 $986 −$986 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 29 $104 −$104 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $1 $0 -1%
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $1 +$1 +105%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $1 +$1 +140%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $1 +$1 +146%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $2 $0 +23%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $1 +$1 +101%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $1 +$1 +101%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $1 +$1 +109%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 +$1 +109%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on April 20? May 04 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on April 20? May 04 $10 +$4 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 14 Apr 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 13? Apr 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 13? Apr 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 12? Apr 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 48¢ $1 10d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 61¢ $1 11d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $1 11d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 45¢ $1 11d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 40¢ $1 11d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $1 11d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 45¢ $1 11d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $1 11d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 11d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 49¢ $1 11d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ $1 11d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $1 11d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ $1 11d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 41¢ $1 11d
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) BUY Flame Team 48¢ $1 11d
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 43¢ $1 11d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 48¢ $1 11d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $1 11d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $1 11d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY FlyQuest 42¢ $1 11d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 46¢ $1 11d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 47¢ $1 12d
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) BUY DXA Esports 45¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 47¢ $1 12d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $1 12d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $1 12d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 47¢ $1 12d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 43¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records