Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x84e3…3dfd weather 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$232 (+8%) realized +$232 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%110W / 18L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$27
14 days+$129
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.1% -5.8% 82% 82% -6.2%
≤30d 72 +7.5% -2.8% 86% 86% -2.7%
≤90d 128 +8.1% -2.2% 86% 86% -2.9%
all 128 +8.1% -2.2% 86% 86% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 86% -2.9%
10% -11.6% 45% -12.2%
15% -20.1% 11% -20.7%
20% -27.9% 0% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses110 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage67d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $80 +$24 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 Jun 27 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? Jun 26 $71 +$17 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $71 +$12 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $71 +$20 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $70 +$22 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $71 +$14 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $51 +$22 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 +$14 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $49 +$11 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$5 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$12 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $51 +$18 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 −$8 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 4? Jun 12 $20 −$12 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 4? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $33 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $33 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $33 +$10 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $31 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $33 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$6 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$7 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$6 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June Jun 05 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 04 $20 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $20 +$3 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 77¢ $24 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 77¢ $52 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 77¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 BUY No 76¢ $55 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 BUY No 76¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 BUY No 76¢ $8 29h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 BUY No 76¢ $7 29h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 BUY No 76¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $25 44h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $13 44h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $7 44h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $20 44h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $13 45h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? BUY No 79¢ $71 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 95¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 95¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 95¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 95¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 95¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 80¢ $71 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 25? SELL No 92¢ $38 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 97¢ $93 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 73¢ $33 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 435 history records