Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:20:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84e3…8355 sports 328 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-5%) realized −$21 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%186W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$25
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$30
other 8% +$5
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -20.9% -28.4% 48% 39% -26.1%
≤30d 226 -11.2% -19.7% 52% 46% -20.3%
≤90d 257 -9.3% -17.9% 54% 46% -18.6%
all 325 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 50% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 50% -15.7%
10% -22.8% 35% -23.7%
15% -30.3% 21% -31.1%
20% -37.1% 12% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses186 / 139
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)325 / 328
History coverage257d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Misa Esports 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 56¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 60¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 29 $1 $0 +32%
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar Jun 29 $1 $0 -0%
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 29 $1 $0 -36%
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 29 $1 $0 +23%
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 29 $1 −$1 -67%
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 29 $1 $0 +37%
Brasov: Max Alcala Gurri vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg Jun 29 $1 $0 -45%
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $2 −$1 -27%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Jun 29 $1 $0 +43%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $1 $0 +30%
Troyes: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Thomas Faurel Jun 29 $1 $0 +20%
Brasov: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 29 $1 $0 +35%
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Jun 29 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Jun 29 $1 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner Jun 28 $1 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $2 +$1 +28%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $1 +$1 +104%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $1 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $1 −$1 -63%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $1 −$1 -75%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $1 $0 +13%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Playoff Jun 27 $1 $0 +19%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $1 $0 +42%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $1 $0 +22%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $2 −$1 -28%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $3 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $1 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $5 −$2 -30%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $2 $0 -19%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $1 $0 +14%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $1 $0 +31%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $2 $0 +11%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $1 $0 -12%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $1 $0 +32%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $1 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $2 −$1 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 56¢ $1 53m
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 62¢ $1 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag SELL Falcons Esport 69¢ $1 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Falcons Esport 51¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar SELL Solana Sierra 22¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Solana Sierra 21¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Rinky Hijikata 46¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova SELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 57¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 70¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 45¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Adolfo Vallejo 21¢ $0 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet SELL Arthur Rinderknech 100¢ $1 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Adolfo Vallejo 62¢ $1 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Arthur Rinderknech 72¢ $1 4h
Brasov: Max Alcala Gurri vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg SELL Max Alcala Gurri 24¢ $1 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic SELL Dino Prizmic 73¢ $1 5h
Brasov: Max Alcala Gurri vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg BUY Max Alcala Gurri 42¢ $1 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic BUY Dino Prizmic 50¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ - Map 1 Winner SELL Prestige 100¢ $1 6h
Troyes: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Thomas Faurel SELL Igor Ribeiro Marcondes 51¢ $1 6h
Troyes: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Thomas Faurel BUY Igor Ribeiro Marcondes 41¢ $1 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Cameron Norrie 69¢ $1 7h
Brasov: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Franco Roncadelli SELL Franco Roncadelli 80¢ $1 7h
Brasov: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Franco Roncadelli 58¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ - Map 1 Winner BUY Prestige 76¢ $1 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm SELL Martin Damm 82¢ $1 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 75¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-Sashi Academy 63¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs ex-Sashi Academy - Map 2 Winner SELL ex-Sashi Academy 32¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.57 · official $3.57 (match) · 741 history records