Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
84 0x84e4…1b06 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$3
sports 13% −$1
crypto 1% +$14
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 7 +0.0% -9.5% 43% 0% -9.5%
all 17 +11.8% +1.1% 53% 35% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 35% -9.3%
10% -8.6% 35% -18.0%
15% -17.4% 35% -25.9%
20% -25.5% 35% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$752) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage115d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Apr 20 $1,661 +$3 +0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close Apr 20 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Bournemouth finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Le Apr 20 $863 −$1 -0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e Apr 20 $1,655 +$2 +0%
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? Apr 20 $752 +$2 +0%
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31? Apr 20 $750 −$2 -0%
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 6AM ET Mar 04 $13 +$13 +100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 2AM ET Mar 02 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 9AM ET Mar 02 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11AM ET Mar 01 $14 +$14 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 9AM ET Feb 28 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 27 $7 +$7 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 1AM ET Feb 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 22 $5 +$5 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 2PM ET Feb 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? SELL No 100¢ $784 55d
Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? SELL No 100¢ $25 55d
Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? BUY No 100¢ $809 55d
Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? SELL No 100¢ $89 55d
Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? SELL No 100¢ $765 55d
Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? BUY No 99¢ $852 55d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close SELL No 99¢ $819 55d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close SELL No 99¢ $70 55d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close BUY No 99¢ $890 55d
Will Bournemouth finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Le SELL No 100¢ $863 55d
Will Bournemouth finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Le BUY No 100¢ $863 55d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e SELL No 100¢ $829 55d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e BUY No 100¢ $828 55d
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $753 55d
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond? BUY No 99¢ $752 55d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e SELL No 100¢ $63 55d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e SELL No 100¢ $765 55d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e BUY No 100¢ $827 55d
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31? SELL No 99¢ $749 55d
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $750 55d
Solana Up or Down - March 3, 6AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 104d
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 2AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 105d
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 9AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 106d
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 9AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 108d
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 9AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records