Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84e8…1888 crypto 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 561d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$36 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate93%157W / 11L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% +$32
tech 24% +$4
crypto 19% −$2
world 15% +$3
politics 8% −$1
sports 5% −$4
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 17 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 74 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 1% -7.2%
all 168 -0.9% -10.3% 93% 9% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 9% -8.5%
10% -18.9% 8% -17.3%
15% -26.7% 6% -25.3%
20% -33.9% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

561d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses157 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)168 / 170
History coverage561d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $197 $197 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $197 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 01 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $161 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $146 +$3 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $146 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $144 +$3 +2%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $118 +$28 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $114 +$2 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $114 +$1 +1%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 06 $128 +$3 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 01 $16 +$1 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 01 $92 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $420 end of April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $7 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 26 $25 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the April Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $120 end of March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $60 end of March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 54m
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $173 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $197 23d
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 26d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $161 26d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 98¢ $146 27d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $146 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY No 92¢ $1 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $144 36d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $118 40d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 41d
Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 98¢ $114 42d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $1 44d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $114 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 46d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 47d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $4 47d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 47d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 50d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 52d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 52d
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $128 52d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 53d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 53d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 53d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.80 · official $197.80 (match) · 351 history records