Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84ea…7732 sports 84 markets active 7h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+20%) realized +$80 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%40W / 41L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$40
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$91
world 6% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -14.8% -22.9% 47% 47% -20.9%
≤30d 59 +2.2% -7.6% 54% 53% -0.8%
≤90d 81 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 48% +6.6%
all 81 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 48% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 48% +6.6%
10% -20.9% 46% -3.6%
15% -28.5% 46% -12.9%
20% -35.5% 42% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses40 / 41
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage57d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 47¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+113%)
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Benjamin Bonzi 54¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Yi Zhou 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 17 $2 +$2 +88%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $4 +$3 +71%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $6 +$4 +65%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $17 +$29 +166%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$5 +65%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $2 +$2 +79%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $1 +$1 +67%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 06 $1 +$1 +79%
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Tyler: Braden Shick vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 04 $1 +$1 +79%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $20 +$17 +83%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $12 +$22 +180%
Makarska: Tamara Zidansek vs Polona Hercog Jun 02 $2 $0 -16%
Birmingham: Jacob Fearnley vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5) Jun 02 $5 +$2 +42%
Set 1 Winner: Svitolina vs Kostyuk Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Heilbronn: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 02 $8 −$1 -13%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $1 $0 +22%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 01 $3 +$1 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $3 +$8 +246%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $1 +$1 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $1 +$1 +76%
Kosice: Andrej Martin vs Martin Krumich May 29 $1 $0 +48%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Paul/Willis vs Chandrasekar/Yuzuki May 28 $1 +$1 +55%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 28 $1 +$1 +90%
Navone vs. Mensik: Match O/U 36.5 May 27 $1 +$1 +76%
Centurion: Luc Koenig vs Dominik Palan May 26 $2 +$3 +126%
Centurion: Alec Beckley vs Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Jacopo Vasami 58¢ $1 6h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 58¢ $1 8h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Yi Zhou 58¢ $1 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 53¢ $1 8h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 52¢ $1 8h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Daniel Jade 51¢ $1 8h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 58¢ $1 8h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 57¢ $1 8h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 58¢ $1 8h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 58¢ $1 8h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 54¢ $1 9h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $1 9h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 44¢ $1 30h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 57¢ $1 31h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 57¢ $1 31h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 60¢ $1 2d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 60¢ $1 2d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 60¢ $1 2d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 60¢ $1 2d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 60¢ $1 2d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 60¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 36¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 37¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 37¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 37¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 37¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 37¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 37¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 37¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 37¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $4.97 (match) · 498 history records