Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84f0…bf8b other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%28W / 33L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$6
other 38% +$1
politics 7% +$1
sports 5% +$1
tech 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 33% -6.8%
≤30d 19 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 19 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 11% -8.4%
all 61 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -8.7%
10% -19.2% 2% -17.5%
15% -27.0% 2% -25.5%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses28 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage474d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $52 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $52 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $94 +$2 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $19 +$3 +17%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $24 +$1 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $89 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $44 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -26%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 +$2 +46%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 -18%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 27 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lois Boisson win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea el May 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 09 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 45 and 49 seats? May 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 05 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the n Apr 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $18 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%? Apr 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Apr 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 07 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $52 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $52 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $52 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $20 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $27 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $34 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $10 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $50 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $50 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 38h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 38h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 38h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $22 41h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $19 43h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $14 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $14 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $21 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $14 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $10 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $10 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.30 · official $51.60 (match) · 188 history records