Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x84f0…ff86 crypto 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-10%) realized −$58 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%27W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$74
other 36% −$61
sports 8% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 45% -7.6%
≤30d 56 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 45% -7.6%
≤90d 56 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 45% -7.6%
all 56 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 45% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 45% -7.6%
10% -13.3% 38% -16.5%
15% -21.7% 30% -24.5%
20% -29.3% 25% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses27 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage5d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 67¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$26 +492%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$31 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +37%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +84%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +13%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +33%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 −$6 -33%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +58%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +321%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +223%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$2 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $12 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.78 · official $9.57 (match) · 119 history records