Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84f7…79ec other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$136 (-14%) realized −$138 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days−$6
14 days−$152
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$143
sports 29% −$141
world 25% −$149
politics 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +41.8% +28.3% 50% 50% -11.9%
≤30d 16 -19.9% -27.5% 31% 31% -45.5%
≤90d 39 +3.2% -6.7% 26% 26% -25.3%
all 39 +3.2% -6.7% 26% 26% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 26% -25.3%
10% -15.6% 26% -32.4%
15% -23.8% 26% -39.0%
20% -31.2% 21% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$18 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage64d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$51 +363%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$33 -55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 +$19 +47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$16 +61%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $74 −$48 -65%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $41 −$29 -71%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$36 +104%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $30 −$24 -80%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -73%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $22 +$10 +45%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $21 +$161 +781%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Hull City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the Engl May 24 $10 +$19 +188%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $15 −$15 -94%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 20 $17 −$2 -13%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 20 $5 +$23 +440%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 +$13 +123%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $20 +$32 +157%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $16 −$10 -62%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 10 $20 −$9 -46%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 09 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $25 −$1 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 21 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 21 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $35 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 30¢ $27 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $74 6d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $35 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 6¢ $6 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 28¢ $30 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 9d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 54¢ $89 10d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 10d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 14d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 24d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 29d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $65 29d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 30d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 30d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 30d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 34d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 34d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 34d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.03 · official $60.03 (match) · 145 history records