Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x84f8…0ff2 world 433 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,273 (-6%) realized −$12,932 · open +$659
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate77%300W / 89L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$493per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$24,855now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$6,369
other 21% +$394
sports 12% +$4,461
politics 10% +$201
economics 6% +$748
culture 3% +$2,020
tech 1% +$327
finance 1% +$35
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -14.0% -22.2% 82% 9% -12.1%
≤30d 28 -3.2% -12.4% 86% 11% -9.5%
≤90d 309 -1.7% -11.1% 80% 11% -5.4%
all 389 +1.0% -8.6% 77% 14% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 14% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 10% -12.6%
15% -25.4% 8% -21.0%
20% -32.7% 7% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$574) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$65 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.18 per $1 lost it wins $3.18
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$24,855
Realized−$12,932
Unrealized+$659
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses300 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions46
Markets (closed)389 / 433
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$493
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $3,284 $3,299 +$14 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $2,790 $2,775 −$15 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,820 $1,810 −$10 (-1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 86¢ $1,725 $1,730 +$5 (+0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $1,405 $1,494 +$89 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 82¢ $1,149 $1,237 +$88 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $988 $996 +$8 (+1%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 94¢ 95¢ $983 $987 +$4 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 93¢ 92¢ $930 $925 −$5 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 78¢ 88¢ $785 $875 +$90 (+11%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $850 $871 +$21 (+2%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 94¢ 95¢ $698 $700 +$2 (+0%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $625 $623 −$2 (-0%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? No 89¢ 99¢ $557 $621 +$64 (+12%)
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $609 $621 +$12 (+2%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $526 $531 +$4 (+1%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $529 $530 +$1 (+0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $480 $478 −$2 (-1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 77¢ 79¢ $443 $453 +$10 (+2%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $440 $447 +$7 (+2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 42¢ 84¢ $208 $422 +$214 (+103%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $296 $343 +$47 (+16%)
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 88¢ 96¢ $283 $308 +$26 (+9%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 91¢ 89¢ $251 $244 −$7 (-3%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $205 $211 +$6 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Jun 26 $1,408 −$1,468 -104%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 26 $346 +$3 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 26 $975 +$22 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 26 $2,378 +$55 +2%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $7 −$6 -97%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 26 $2,567 +$87 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 26 $2,383 +$111 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 26 $2,690 +$727 +27%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $983 +$16 +2%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $154 $0 +0%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $7,521 −$18 -0%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $234 +$13 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 06 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $469 +$20 +4%
US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? Jun 01 $494 +$6 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $111 +$4 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $985 +$15 +2%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? Jun 01 $62 +$4 +7%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $1,160 +$24 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $2,194 +$139 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $418 +$81 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $2,914 +$86 +3%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $1,404 +$37 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $3,310 +$13 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $488 +$11 +2%
Will LeBron James win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $121 +$2 +2%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $190 +$153 +80%
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $1,145 +$6 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $256 −$18 -7%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22? May 24 $291 +$9 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $1,502 +$18 +1%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 19 $1,841 +$208 +11%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 18 $398 +$2 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $1,648 +$1,403 +85%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $222 +$27 +12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 16 $373 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 16 $680 +$268 +39%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026? May 16 $204 +$4 +2%
Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves? May 16 $44 $0 +1%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $480 +$20 +4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? May 16 $478 +$23 +5%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $957 +$339 +35%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 15 $241 −$235 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 15 $725 +$25 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 15 $85 −$5 -6%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $625 +$4 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $2,003 +$22 +1%
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $1,244 +$6 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 21m
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 93¢ $0 40m
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $467 44m
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 87¢ $438 45m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $349 45m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $498 46m
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $499 46m
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $253 46m
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No $0 50m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $525 58m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $498 58m
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $172 58m
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $643 1h
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 99¢ $33 1h
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY No 91¢ $252 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $884 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $92 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $37 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,855.41 · official $24,855.41 (match) · 3500 history records