Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x84f8…d348 other 217 markets active 0h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12,854 (+2%) realized +$12,857 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate91%176W / 18L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$3,120per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$11,136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days+$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$5,318
world 27% +$4,443
politics 19% +$2,412
crypto 11% +$1,236
weather 7% +$892
tech 3% −$1,476
economics 0% +$50
sports 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -16.7% -24.7% 33% 33% -38.4%
≤30d 8 -5.0% -14.0% 75% 12% -6.3%
≤90d 15 -1.9% -11.3% 87% 7% -7.5%
all 194 -1.4% -10.8% 91% 8% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 8% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 3% -16.6%
15% -27.1% 2% -24.7%
20% -34.3% 1% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$4,786) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$203 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.53 per $1 lost it wins $4.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$11,136
Realized+$12,857
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses176 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions23
Markets (closed)194 / 217
History coverage321d
Avg bet$3,120
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $3,200 $3,220 +$20 (+1%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1,500 $1,488 −$11 (-1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 93¢ 93¢ $1,413 $1,415 +$3 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 95¢ 94¢ $950 $936 −$14 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $835 $848 +$13 (+2%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $492 $487 −$5 (-1%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $321 $330 +$10 (+3%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $297 $276 −$21 (-7%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $264 $262 −$2 (-1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $238 $239 +$1 (+1%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $220 $216 −$4 (-2%)
Will Jordan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $193 $192 −$1 (-0%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $179 $186 +$6 (+4%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 78¢ $121 $122 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $106 $107 +$1 (+1%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $111 $103 −$8 (-7%)
Will Iraq reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $86 $94 +$8 (+9%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $22 +$13 +57%
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $24 −$2 -7%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $21 $0 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $459 +$6 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? Jun 08 $965 +$35 +4%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 08 $7,210 +$300 +4%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? May 15 $4,201 +$21 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? May 08 $1,343 +$15 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 10? May 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 08 $7,295 +$184 +2%
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? Apr 09 $744 +$25 +3%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $981 +$21 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $5,523 +$54 +1%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Mar 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 13 $50 +$2 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Mar 01 $200 −$162 -81%
Will Jamaica record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 26 $36 +$1 +3%
Will "Pillion" win Outstanding British Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? Feb 26 $52 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Fe Feb 26 $2,688 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Fe Feb 26 $2,739 +$5 +0%
Will FC Alverca win on 2026-02-08? Feb 17 $20 +$1 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 17 $21 $0 +2%
Will Booster Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival G Feb 17 $21 +$1 +5%
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (W) Feb 17 $24 $0 +0%
LSU Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers (W) Feb 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Feb 11 $5,217 +$21 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 08 $5,964 +$36 +1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 04 $18,747 −$286 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31? Feb 04 $131 +$1 +1%
Will UAE strike Yemen by January 31? Feb 04 $488 +$7 +2%
US x Russia military clash by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $2,276 +$24 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $2,964 +$36 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 04 $11,297 +$115 +1%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 04 $26,223 +$1 +0%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $4,955 +$45 +1%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Feb 04 $4,870 +$130 +3%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $4,940 +$60 +1%
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31? Feb 04 $6,937 +$63 +1%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Feb 04 $7,709 +$291 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 04 $15,510 +$1,981 +13%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $553 −$38 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 26 $424 +$48 +11%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 26 $3,550 +$251 +7%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 26 $3,771 +$48 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 25 $520 +$82 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 25 $1,730 +$78 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 25 $240 +$19 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 4m
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 9m
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $119 15m
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 19m
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $259 21m
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 22m
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 22m
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 22m
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 22m
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 23m
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 23m
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 23m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 48m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $27 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $63 1h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $7 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $239 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $221 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $95 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $199 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $14 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $42 1h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $497 1h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $515 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,136.41 · official $11,136.43 (match) · 1286 history records