Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x84fe…be09 sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,305 (-18%) realized −$6,517 · open +$212
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%49W / 73L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$392est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days−$660
14 days−$2,259
30 days−$2,551
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$3,463
other 15% −$2,808
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.9% +4.9% 60% 60% -41.2%
≤30d 35 -8.5% -17.2% 46% 46% -26.6%
≤90d 120 -18.7% -26.4% 39% 39% -27.0%
all 122 -17.9% -25.7% 40% 40% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 40% -26.1%
10% -32.8% 40% -33.1%
15% -39.3% 37% -39.6%
20% -45.3% 35% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -28% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$268 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized−$6,517
Unrealized+$212
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses49 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage94d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 100¢ $212 $425 +$212 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 16 $158 +$147 +93%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $314 −$310 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $238 +$222 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 13 $941 −$941 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $239 +$222 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $1,021 −$1,007 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $374 +$374 +100%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5 Jun 08 $335 −$330 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 04 $319 −$319 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 03 $322 −$317 -99%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 159.5 Jun 03 $434 +$456 +105%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 Jun 01 $231 +$224 +97%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 3? Jun 01 $149 −$147 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $709 +$611 +86%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) May 28 $155 −$152 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 27 $844 −$832 -99%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? May 27 $264 +$336 +127%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 26 $977 +$875 +90%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty: O/U 178.5 May 24 $657 −$647 -99%
Game Handicap: SHG (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) May 24 $226 −$222 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? May 24 $433 −$425 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 3? May 24 $148 −$146 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $248 +$222 +90%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 24 $674 +$655 +97%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs ENCE (BO3) - XPortal Playoffs May 24 $280 +$319 +114%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 23 $499 −$492 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 23 $179 −$176 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $99 +$150 +152%
LoL: Misa Esports vs Ozarox Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $56 −$55 -98%
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5) May 20 $412 −$408 -99%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? May 20 $277 −$273 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 20 $749 −$738 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 20 $316 +$284 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5 May 19 $161 +$144 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 May 19 $169 +$146 +86%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 3 Winner May 18 $35 −$34 -98%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 2 Winner May 18 $35 −$34 -98%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 1 Winner May 18 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play May 18 $140 −$138 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $657 +$613 +93%
Map Handicap: UNO (-1.5) vs Guara Esports (+1.5) May 17 $241 −$236 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs TYLOO (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group May 16 $204 +$296 +146%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 16 $386 +$359 +93%
Game Handicap: FNL (-1.5) vs Arneb (+1.5) May 14 $58 +$322 +550%
LoL: T1 Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 14 $334 +$225 +67%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) May 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Quali May 12 $245 −$245 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 12 $339 −$334 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $277 +$303 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $216 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $314 35h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 51¢ $158 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $238 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $267 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $145 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $205 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $292 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $33 3d
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? BUY Under 51¢ $239 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,021 8d
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 52¢ $335 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $69 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $156 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $11 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $24 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $61 11d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 51¢ $319 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 52¢ $322 13d
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 159.5 BUY Over 48¢ $434 15d
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 3? BUY Over 49¢ $149 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $424.79 · official $424.79 (match) · 246 history records