Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
85 0x8503…8172 crypto 385 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,074 (+10%) realized +$1,074 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%222W / 163L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$308
7 days+$1,093
14 days+$1,029
30 days+$974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$811
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 224 +13.4% +2.6% 63% 62% +1.3%
≤30d 285 +7.8% -2.4% 61% 59% -0.5%
≤90d 385 +1.6% -8.1% 58% 56% -2.8%
all 385 +1.6% -8.1% 58% 56% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 56% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 52% -12.1%
15% -24.9% 49% -20.6%
20% -32.3% 38% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,074
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses222 / 163
Open positions0
Markets (closed)385 / 385
History coverage37d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 385 Trades
no open positions (131 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$8 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $111 +$126 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$30 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $67 +$44 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$14 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$31 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $82 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $119 +$119 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$32 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$45 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$28 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$48 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$21 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $92 +$34 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$33 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $110 +$61 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $87 +$68 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$29 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$74 +142%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$10 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $93 −$93 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $32 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $16 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $29 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $21 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $89 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $8 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $17 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $18 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $18 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $35 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $17 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $41 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1372 history records