Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
85 0x8504…88dc sports 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21,807 (-8%) realized −$20,847 · open −$960
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%57W / 74L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,128per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$3,781est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,856
7 days−$2,856
14 days−$2,856
30 days−$18,224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$6,621
other 21% −$15,586
crypto 2% −$3,707
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -47.5% -52.5% 21% 21% -64.7%
≤30d 37 -69.3% -72.2% 11% 11% -73.1%
≤90d 131 -19.6% -27.2% 44% 41% -17.6%
all 131 -19.6% -27.2% 44% 41% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 41% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 36% -25.5%
15% -40.6% 25% -32.7%
20% -46.4% 21% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$2,425) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$900 vs −$1,030 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$1,462
Realized−$20,847
Unrealized−$960
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses57 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$3,781
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2,128
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 56¢ $1,422 $1,461 +$40 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $1,000 $1 −$999 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $2,241 −$2,051 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $313 −$313 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $262 −$262 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$94 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $131 +$130 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $464 −$464 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$30 +29%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $205 +$697 +340%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $409 −$19 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $104 +$24 +23%
Pakistan Super League: Islamabad United vs Multan Sultans Jun 03 $5,000 −$1,562 -31%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 03 $3,500 −$1,045 -30%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Jun 03 $2,076 −$2,076 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 03 $521 −$521 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 03 $519 −$519 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 03 $106 −$106 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Jun 03 $1,559 −$1,559 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 03 $2,777 −$2,777 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 03 $105 −$105 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 03 $3,461 −$3,461 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 03 $105 −$105 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 03 $794 −$794 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 03 $517 −$517 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1AM ET Jun 03 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 03 $105 −$105 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $14,868 −$888 -6%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $7,292 +$5,319 +73%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 08 $1,356 −$1,356 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 07 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 07 $63 +$106 +169%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $6,427 −$4,824 -75%
Will Villarreal CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Apr 26 $2,000 −$1,291 -65%
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 26 $3,000 −$1,944 -65%
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Peshawar Zalmi Apr 25 $8,000 +$2,798 +35%
Pakistan Super League: Quetta Gladiators vs Karachi Kings Apr 25 $2,000 +$2,309 +115%
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 25 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente end in a draw? Apr 25 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,013 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1,442 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 37¢ $147 9h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $2,241 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $313 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $262 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $12 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $464 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $131 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 25h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 86¢ $901 26h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $261 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 21¢ $391 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 21¢ $409 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $128 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,462.41 · official $1,462.41 (match) · 411 history records