Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:18:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x850a…b55f other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$24 (-3%) realized +$35 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$27
world 22% −$37
crypto 6% +$11
tech 4% +$1
politics 1% $0
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -14.3%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 14% -8.2%
≤90d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 25% -7.5%
all 8 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 25% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 25% -7.5%
10% -16.7% 0% -16.4%
15% -24.7% 0% -24.5%
20% -32.1% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)8 / 16
History coverage60d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $81 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $62 $31 −$31 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $59 $29 −$29 (-50%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $28 −$2 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $84 −$5 -6%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$1 -4%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $55 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $32 4h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $32 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $64 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $64 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $72 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $62 19h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 34h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $22 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $10 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $23 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $4 6d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $2 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $10 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $6 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $3 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $4 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $12 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $28 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.73 · official $408.73 (match) · 61 history records