Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x850c…35ab other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%35W / 68L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$16
14 days+$11
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$6
other 27% −$30
sports 21% +$4
politics 19% −$4
finance 2% −$12
tech 0% −$9
crypto 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 42% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 30 -2.6% -11.9% 30% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 49 -2.3% -11.6% 35% 2% -9.8%
all 103 -2.6% -11.9% 34% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 2% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses35 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage453d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $139 +$3 +2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $269 +$8 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $138 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $147 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $285 +$1 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $474 +$5 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $157 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $132 +$1 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $21 −$4 -18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $137 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $131 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $137 −$6 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $136 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $133 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $136 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $150 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $81 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $15 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $137 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $110 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $3 −$2 -46%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $228 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $230 −$12 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $150 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $7 +$5 +76%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $55 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $145 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $145 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 25 $330 −$18 -6%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $172 −$13 -8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 24 $137 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $24 −$9 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $157 −$2 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,836 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $920 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $916 +$4 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $916 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $916 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $141 35m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $127 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $11 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $119 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $139 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $138 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $138 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $147 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $147 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $135 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $134 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $52 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $151 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $151 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $131 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $151 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $50 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $49 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.00 (match) · 408 history records