Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x850d…8516 other 95 markets active 4h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%45W / 49L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$23
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$35
other 26% +$1
sports 16% +$3
politics 8% −$8
finance 2% −$4
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.1% -3.1% 62% 12% -8.1%
≤30d 31 -2.5% -11.7% 39% 6% -8.7%
≤90d 40 -2.0% -11.4% 35% 5% -9.2%
all 94 -0.7% -10.2% 48% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.2%
10% -18.8% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.6% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses45 / 49
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage477d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $122 +$7 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $92 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $173 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $627 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $171 +$2 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$15 +49%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $158 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $174 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $128 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $301 +$7 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $316 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $117 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $154 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $33 −$2 -7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $156 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $322 −$4 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $105 +$12 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $148 −$4 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $140 +$9 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $143 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $141 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $24 −$10 -43%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $89 −$3 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $166 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Apr 24 $6 $0 -6%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1,212 +$1 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $125 +$3 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $598 −$7 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 21 $9 $0 +2%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 20 $6 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 16 $5 −$2 -30%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Georgia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 13 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 38¢ $129 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $122 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $69 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $173 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $173 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $70 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $102 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $173 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $84 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $9 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $97 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $99 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $111 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $47 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $126 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $143 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $28 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $117 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $55 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 334 history records