Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:07:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8513…05c3 politics 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$7
other 30% −$5
sports 21% −$3
culture 7% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 1 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 3 -13.8% -22.0% 0% 0% -11.2%
all 84 -4.1% -13.2% 1% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 83
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage376d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1 $0 -16%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $85 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $87 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 09 $89 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $84 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $87 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $89 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $175 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $448 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $176 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 09 $90 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 21 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $186 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $188 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $91 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 08 $99 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 30 $181 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 29 $1 $0 -17%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $1 $0 -20%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 27 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 07 $6 −$2 -29%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 29 $189 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 24 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 16 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $86 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $86 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $86 28d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 40d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 42d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $85 105d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $85 107d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 107d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 109d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 109d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 109d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $63 110d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 110d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 112d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $87 112d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $87 125d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 127d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 130d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $89 134d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $89 135d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 139d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 139d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 142d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 143d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $87 143d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $87 145d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $86 146d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $86 147d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 148d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.43 · official $86.43 (match) · 391 history records