Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
85 0x851a…6b12 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$344 (+12%) realized +$438 · open −$94
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$437
14 days+$437
30 days+$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$247
sports 30% +$465
world 21% +$195
politics 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +48.2% +34.1% 50% 50% +16.9%
≤30d 14 +30.2% +17.8% 43% 43% +2.8%
≤90d 15 +34.8% +22.0% 47% 47% +11.1%
all 21 +22.4% +10.7% 43% 43% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.7% 43% +6.3%
10% +0.1% 43% -3.8%
15% -9.6% 43% -13.1%
20% -18.4% 43% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$73 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized+$438
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage117d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 16¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$27 +103%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $203 +$262 +129%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $229 +$120 +52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$243 +474%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$168 +165%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $172 −$170 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $256 −$11 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$159 +156%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $145 −$143 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $103 −$57 -55%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $211 +$209 +99%
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Mar 11 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 07 $60 −$18 -30%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 07 $105 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 07 $75 +$89 +119%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$6 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $52 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $229 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 22h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $172 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $244 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $256 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $66 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $67 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $261 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 49¢ $145 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes $46 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 18d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $420 76d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $211 84d
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? BUY Yes $100 98d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes $42 102d
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes $105 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.71 · official $349.22 · 49 history records