Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x851a…de17 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (548 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,516 (+7%) realized +$4,521 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%24W / 15L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,532per market
Trades / day548.1pace
Fees−$1,490est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,296
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (548 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 39 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 39 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 0% -7.6%
all 39 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 0% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover548.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 0% -7.6%
10% -17.7% 0% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -25.7% 0% -24.5%
20% -33.0% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$2,196) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
40.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$33 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.64 per $1 lost it wins $3.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,521
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses24 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1,490
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$1,532
Trades / day548.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,754 +$106 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $834 −$25 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,348 −$23 -2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,475 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,904 −$23 -1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,561 +$13 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,031 −$6 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2,108 +$139 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,196 +$109 +5%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $177 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $202 −$15 -7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,571 +$63 +2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,942 +$49 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,305 +$82 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $133 −$31 -23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $162 −$13 -8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,139 +$74 +6%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $651 −$8 -1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,070 −$149 -5%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,984 +$108 +6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,563 −$5 -0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,274 +$93 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $77 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,503 +$15 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,574 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,605 −$9 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,110 +$42 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,226 +$69 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,837 −$130 -7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $232 −$14 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,808 +$38 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,464 +$119 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,277 −$30 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $153 −$11 -7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $86 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5,696 +$264 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,678 +$58 +4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,178 +$332 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 2¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 92¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 89¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 18¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 18¢ $65 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 82¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 80¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 20¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 20¢ $80 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 20¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 33¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 33¢ $99 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 31¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 31¢ $93 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 29¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 28¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 27¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 25¢ $67 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 25¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 25¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 27¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 23¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 81¢ $105 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 80¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 79¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 76¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 75¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 79¢ $55 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 79¢ $32 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 3500 history records