Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x851c…8897
other · 6 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$2 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%
Chart Positions 4 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 82¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Son Heungmin: 3+ Goals Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% −$2
sports 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3d
Son Heungmin: 3+ Goals SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3d
Son Heungmin: 3+ Goals BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-55.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.8% -55.5% 0% 0% -70.1%
≤30d 2 -50.8% -55.5% 0% 0% -70.1%
≤90d 2 -50.8% -55.5% 0% 0% -70.1%
all 2 -50.8% -55.5% 0% 0% -70.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.5% 0% -70.1%
10% -59.8% 0% -72.9%
15% -63.7% 0% -75.6%
20% -67.2% 0% -77.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.81 · official $3.81 (match) · 10 history records