Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x851f…eeed crypto 1633 markets active 2d ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%774W / 817L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days−$10
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +4.2% -5.7% 77% 70% -5.2%
≤30d 411 +0.4% -9.1% 47% 44% -27.3%
≤90d 1411 +0.0% -9.5% 49% 45% -9.7%
all 1591 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 44% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 44% -10.7%
10% -20.1% 41% -19.3%
15% -27.8% 37% -27.1%
20% -34.9% 34% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses774 / 817
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1591 / 1633
History coverage167d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1591 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2568 history records