Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x851f…1043 politics 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$876 (+0%) realized +$877 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%27W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$1,262per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$150
30 days−$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$94
other 41% +$1,079
sports 10% −$124
culture 3% −$8
economics 2% −$3
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -11.9% -20.3% 6% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 121 -9.5% -18.1% 7% 2% -10.1%
all 151 +1.3% -8.4% 18% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 11% -9.1%
10% -17.1% 11% -17.8%
15% -25.2% 9% -25.8%
20% -32.5% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,838) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$11 · ×7.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$788
Realized+$877
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses27 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)151 / 153
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,262
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $527 $527 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $261 $261 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,416 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,562 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,918 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,828 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,286 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,088 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 08 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $2,806 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 07 $75 −$75 -100%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $779 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $238 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $443 +$2 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,396 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,438 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $367 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,332 −$3 -0%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,950 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $781 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,140 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 10 $1,131 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,202 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $2,938 −$4 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $2,128 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,874 −$4 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,162 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,164 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,115 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $528 55m
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $535 24h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $535 26h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $605 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $606 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $606 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $607 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $604 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $605 3d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $605 3d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $606 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $261 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $869 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $870 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $820 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $821 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $752 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $753 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $869 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $870 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $869 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $871 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $875 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $876 9d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $800 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $802 10d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 31¢ $47 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $887 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $888 14d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY FlyQuest 52¢ $75 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $788.26 · official $788.26 (match) · 540 history records