Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x851f…642f sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$205
other 45% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -4.4% -13.5% 52% 52% -12.6%
≤30d 23 -4.4% -13.5% 52% 52% -12.6%
≤90d 23 -4.4% -13.5% 52% 52% -12.6%
all 23 -4.4% -13.5% 52% 52% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 52% -12.6%
10% -21.8% 52% -21.0%
15% -29.4% 43% -28.6%
20% -36.3% 43% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$50 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia-Herzegovina to win the second half? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$8 +262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? Jun 18 $101 +$54 +53%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $101 +$65 +64%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Second half draw? Jun 18 $41 +$12 +30%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $96 +$57 +59%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Second half draw? Jun 17 $102 +$119 +116%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 17 $81 +$48 +59%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $50 +$31 +62%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $47 +$12 +26%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$9 +105%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia-Herzegovina to win the second half? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? SELL No 99¢ $41 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? SELL No 99¢ $24 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? SELL No 99¢ $24 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? SELL No 99¢ $12 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? SELL No 99¢ $12 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? SELL No 99¢ $10 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? SELL No 99¢ $10 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? SELL No 99¢ $4 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? SELL No 99¢ $1 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Second half draw? BUY No 64¢ $101 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? SELL No 95¢ $166 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $101 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Second half draw? SELL No 99¢ $53 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Second half draw? BUY No 75¢ $41 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $153 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $96 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $51 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 17¢ $102 24h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $101 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Second half draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $118 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Second half draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $94 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records