Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8523…f09d other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 402d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$13
politics 35% −$3
sports 13% −$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% −$2
world 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 76 -9.3% -18.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -25.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -33.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -39.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage402d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $99 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1 $0 -19%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $157 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 16? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $1 $0 -50%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $103 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 21 $103 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $52 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 24 $107 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 05 $53 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $1 $0 -24%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 14 $4 $0 -8%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $109 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Sep 30 $123 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $122 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 20 $54 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $57 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 12d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $48 26d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 28d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 31d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 112d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 134d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 146d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 148d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $48 151d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 152d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 153d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 158d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 159d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 161d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 161d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 161d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $50 161d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $50 164d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 165d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 165d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $51 166d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 166d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 166d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $52 166d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $52 168d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 337 history records