Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x852d…4a05 sports 791 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$310 (+1%) realized +$342 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%735W / 44L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$100
14 days+$37
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$106
crypto 15% +$145
other 9% +$33
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 353 -3.4% -12.6% 95% 1% -9.1%
≤30d 734 -1.7% -11.1% 94% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 779 -1.4% -10.8% 94% 2% -8.6%
all 779 -1.4% -10.8% 94% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 2% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 1% -17.4%
15% -27.1% 1% -25.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$533
Realized+$342
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses735 / 44
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)779 / 791
History coverage48d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 779 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero - Game 2 Winner Cyber Hero 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Help Us LFO vs Can You Be My Enemy (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC North - Stage 1 Group Stage Help Us LFO 99¢ 95¢ $77 $74 −$3 (-4%)
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport - Map 1 Winner Sharper Esport 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 2 Winner the bug 100¢ 99¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs Sharper Esport 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Fury vs HL tauri Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Asia - Stage 1 Group Stage Fury 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Orchid vs Weibo Gaming (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Asia - Stage 1 Group Stage Weibo Gaming 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Henry Searle 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $136 in June? Yes 99¢ 22¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-78%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Yes 99¢ 16¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-84%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? Yes 99¢ 16¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: Soul's Heart Esport vs Daystar (BO1) - Asia Pacific Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs mCon esports (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $67 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $92 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: WBT Academy vs Spectrum (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: unknowns vs Arthrose Peek (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $144 +$6 +4%
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $74 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Jun 16 $17 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $148 +$2 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs The Soulless Team - Game 2 Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $281 +$1 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: ENTERPRISE Esports vs Arcade Esports (BO1) - Asia P Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban (BO3) - OCS Japan Sta Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $148 +$2 +1%
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $148 +$2 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: Chiefs Esports Club vs Shaiikademy (BO1) - Asia Pac Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Valorant: Asterisk vs No Salary Peek (BO3) - VCL South Asia: Regular S Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 16 $16 +$4 +26%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $149 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs Linx Legacy Esport - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $94 +$12 +13%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs Linx Legacy Esport - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs WAZABI - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $202 +$33 +16%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs WAZABI - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $74 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA L Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs Dark Phoenix - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs Dark Phoenix (BO3) - BetBoom R Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: Fury vs HL tauri Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacific Leagu BUY Fury 100¢ $5 11m
Rainbow Six Siege: Fury vs HL tauri Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacific Leagu BUY Fury 100¢ $5 11m
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero - Game 2 Winner BUY Cyber Hero 100¢ $75 27m
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero - Game 2 Winner BUY Cyber Hero 100¢ $75 27m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $75 36m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $75 36m
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: P BUY Sharper Esport 100¢ $5 48m
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: P BUY Sharper Esport 100¢ $5 48m
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Orchid vs Weibo Gaming (BO1) - Asia Pacific Le BUY Weibo Gaming 100¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport - Map 1 Winner BUY Sharper Esport 100¢ $65 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $5 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Soul's Heart Esport vs Daystar (BO1) - Asia Pacific BUY Daystar 100¢ $5 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Soul's Heart Esport vs Daystar (BO1) - Asia Pacific BUY Daystar 100¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 100¢ $75 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 100¢ $75 4h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 100¢ $5 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Orchid vs Weibo Gaming (BO1) - Asia Pacific Le BUY Weibo Gaming 100¢ $1 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Orchid vs Weibo Gaming (BO1) - Asia Pacific Le BUY Weibo Gaming 100¢ $5 5h
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner BUY Dplus 100¢ $75 5h
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner BUY Dplus 100¢ $75 5h
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro - Game 3 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 100¢ $25 6h
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro - Game 3 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 100¢ $75 6h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY INFURITY Gaming 100¢ $75 7h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY INFURITY Gaming 100¢ $75 7h
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 100¢ $25 7h
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 100¢ $75 7h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY INFURITY Gaming 100¢ $75 8h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY INFURITY Gaming 100¢ $75 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 100¢ $67 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.64 · official $532.64 (match) · 2482 history records