Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
85 0x852d…f63a weather 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$17 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate75%112W / 37L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$17
other 2% −$6
crypto 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +1.4% -8.3% 69% 18% -8.0%
≤30d 149 +2.0% -7.7% 75% 27% -8.0%
≤90d 149 +2.0% -7.7% 75% 27% -8.0%
all 149 +2.0% -7.7% 75% 27% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 27% -8.0%
10% -16.5% 11% -16.8%
15% -24.6% 7% -24.8%
20% -32.0% 5% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses112 / 37
Open positions8
Markets (closed)149 / 157
History coverage29d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? No 90¢ 82¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? No 97¢ 95¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19? Yes 45¢ 72¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Yes 58¢ 71¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+23%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 19? No 98¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 19? Yes 90¢ 82¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? No 88¢ 75¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 18 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +148%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $34 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$7 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $67 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 75¢ $6 3m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $8 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 92¢ $5 22m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 92¢ $4 22m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 92¢ $4 22m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 92¢ $8 22m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 45m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 80¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $33 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 80¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 77¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $5 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.99 · official $74.99 (match) · 536 history records