Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x852e…a43f other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$1
world 34% +$3
politics 15% $0
tech 5% −$1
sports 3% +$1
crypto 2% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.4% -8.3% 29% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 22% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 22% 0% -8.7%
all 30 +2.6% -7.1% 47% 7% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 7% -8.9%
10% -16.0% 7% -17.6%
15% -24.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -31.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage469d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $37 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $33 +$3 +10%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $67 $0 -0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $1 $0 +29%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 10 $12 $0 -1%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $11 $0 +4%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 betwe Jun 05 $1 $0 +33%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trzaskowski or Nawrocki win the diaspora vote? Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? May 31 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $1 $0 +4%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? May 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 29 $12 $0 -1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 27 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 06 $16 $0 -1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $12 $0 -1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $15 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $12 13m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $24 13m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $37 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $40 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $40 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $40 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $7 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $10 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $18 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $36 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $33 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $11 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $19 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 26d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 359d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 360d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records