Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:25:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

85 0x852e…e616 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$307 (+34%) realized +$250 · open −$24

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate42%8W / 11L

Drawdown83%max

Avg bet$44per market

Trades / day20.7pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-7.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+2.3%	-7.4%	42%	42%	+19.2%
≤30d	19	+2.3%	-7.4%	42%	42%	+19.2%
≤90d	19	+2.3%	-7.4%	42%	42%	+19.2%
all	19	+2.3%	-7.4%	42%	42%	+19.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover20.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-7.4%	42%	+19.2%
10% ← realistic here	-16.3%	42%	+7.8%
15%	-24.4%	42%	-2.6%
20%	-31.8%	42%	-12.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -22% → late +24% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$73 vs −$31 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$70

Realized+$250

Unrealized−$24

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses8 / 11

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage3d

Avg bet$44

Trades / day20.7

Drawdown83%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Golden Knights	18¢	12¢	$74	$48	−$26 (-35%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)	Michael Chandler	20¢	22¢	$20	$22	+$2 (+10%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	Over	29¢	0¢	$29	$0	−$29 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5	Over	1¢	0¢	$0	$0	−$0 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Over	37¢	0¢	$184	$0	−$184 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5	Over	0¢	0¢	$0	$0	−$0 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	Yes	31¢	0¢	$31	$0	−$31 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5	Over	9¢	0¢	$9	$0	−$9 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5	Over	0¢	0¢	$0	$0	−$0 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	35¢	0¢	$52	$0	−$52 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5	Over	0¢	0¢	$0	$0	−$0 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5	Over	0¢	0¢	$0	$0	−$0 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Over	25¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$153	+$197	+129%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$184	−$184	-100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$32	−$31	-98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$9	−$9	-100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$29	−$29	-100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$27	+$72	+264%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$105	+$95	+90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$40	+$62	+156%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$49	+$51	+104%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$72	−$56	-77%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$42	+$58	+135%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5	Jun 12	$16	+$34	+212%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5	Jun 12	$32	+$18	+54%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$25	−$25	-100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5	Jun 11	$0	$0	-100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5	Jun 11	$0	$0	-100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5	Jun 11	$0	$0	-100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5	Jun 11	$0	$0	-100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5	Jun 11	$0	$0	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Golden Knights	11¢	$25	5m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Golden Knights	17¢	$17	36m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai	BUY Michael Chandler	20¢	$20	49m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Golden Knights	33¢	$33	1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$350	1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	32¢	$48	1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	48¢	$49	1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	56¢	$56	1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	21¢	$42	1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	23¢	$12	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	35¢	$18	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	40¢	$6	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	40¢	$1	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	40¢	$13	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	45¢	$21	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	45¢	$1	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	45¢	$1	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$25	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	9¢	$9	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	25¢	$9	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	25¢	$2	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	25¢	$2	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	39¢	$20	2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	55¢	$28	3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	33¢	$16	3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	60¢	$30	3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	29¢	$15	5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	45¢	$22	5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	20¢	$10	5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$25	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.09 · official $70.09 (match) · 75 history records