Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8530…a554
crypto · 41 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$63 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$56 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$87
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage120d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 2 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days+$77
14 days+$77
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 84¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B PCIFIC 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner T1 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +126%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $50 +$11 +21%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $46 −$30 -66%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$26 +171%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $30 +$15 +50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$11 -70%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 −$7 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$11 +106%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 14 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 14 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 14 $2 +$3 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% +$112
crypto 26% −$51
other 18% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $20 12h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $12 13h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 13h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $50 16h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $5 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $102 36h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 39h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $14 39h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 39h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 39h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $45 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 66¢ $30 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 8¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 52¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 2d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 36¢ $15 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -14.9% -23.0% 42% 42% +3.6%
≤30d 24 -14.9% -23.0% 42% 42% +3.6%
≤90d 24 -14.9% -23.0% 42% 42% +3.6%
all 39 -22.8% -30.2% 38% 38% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 38% -1.2%
10% -36.9% 36% -10.6%
15% -43.0% 36% -19.3%
20% -48.6% 31% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.31 · official $87.32 (match) · 77 history records