Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8533…7c76 weather 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate65%83W / 44L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$92
14 days−$131
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$78
other 2% −$89
tech 0% −$18
sports 0% −$3
finance 0% −$11
world 0% −$9
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -11.4% -19.8% 6% 0% -23.9%
≤30d 57 -9.3% -18.0% 25% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 127 -4.5% -13.6% 65% 2% -9.7%
all 127 -4.5% -13.6% 65% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 2% -9.7%
10% -21.9% 1% -18.4%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses83 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage77d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $33 −$4 -14%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $20 −$7 -33%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $170 in June? Jun 11 $37 −$10 -28%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$16 -33%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 10 $35 −$3 -9%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 -5%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP Jun 09 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$2 -8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $54 −$5 -9%
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? Jun 09 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $5 $0 -3%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Jun 09 $47 −$3 -7%
Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on I Jun 09 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 09 $13 $0 -1%
Will NRG win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -13%
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 08 $14 $0 -3%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -2%
Will G2 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $46 −$22 -48%
Will Team Heretics win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 08 $11 $0 -3%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 Jun 08 $15 +$1 +5%
Will 9z qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $23 −$4 -19%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $50 −$17 -33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 05 $7 $0 -6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 05 $25 −$7 -27%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 04 $22 −$1 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 04 $25 −$4 -15%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 04 $25 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 04 $9 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $25 −$8 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 04 $25 −$2 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 28? May 29 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 28? May 28 $328 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $1 1h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $2 1h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 1h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 1h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 1h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $0 1h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 24¢ $7 9h
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 32¢ $1 9h
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 32¢ $10 9h
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 25¢ $5 12h
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 26¢ $5 12h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $5 28h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $5 28h
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 22¢ $0 30h
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 22¢ $9 30h
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 24¢ $10 30h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 39h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 39h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 42h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 42h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 42h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 42h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 42h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 14¢ $0 46h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 14¢ $5 46h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 15¢ $4 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 553 history records