Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:29:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8536…bed6
other · 31 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$128 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$123 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$169
Realized−$123
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage124d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%
Chart Positions 5 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Yes $35 $38 +$3 (+8%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Yes $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-14%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Will "Yonaguni" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "un x100to" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? Yes 32¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will "No Me Conoce - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes 10¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann end in a draw? Yes 24¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will "LA CANCIÓN" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "Neverita" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "Me Porto Bonito" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? Yes 12¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will "Callaita" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? Yes 16¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will "Safaera" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes 10¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Will "Ojitos Lindos" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "PERRO NEGRO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SK Brann win on 2026-02-26? Yes $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will "Te Boté - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "DÁKITI" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$205 +1991%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $64 −$52 -81%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann end in a draw? Feb 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $58 −$58 -100%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh Feb 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 08 $85 −$85 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Will "Neverita" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Yonaguni" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Ojitos Lindos" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "No Me Conoce - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "un x100to" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Safaera" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Te Boté - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "MIA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "LA CANCIÓN" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Callaita" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "La Santa" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "PERRO NEGRO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Me Porto Bonito" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "DÁKITI" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 93% −$92
sports 7% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $42 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $36 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $36 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 6h
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 19d
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 86¢ $215 19d
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes $10 19d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 78¢ $11 19d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 32¢ $64 19d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 101d
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 106d
Will SK Brann win on 2026-02-26? BUY Yes $15 106d
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes 10¢ $35 124d
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes $5 124d
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh BUY Yes $8 124d
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho BUY No 28¢ $50 124d
Knicks vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 41¢ $16 124d
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes $6 124d
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh BUY Yes 11¢ $10 124d
Will "Neverita" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes $1 124d
Will "Yonaguni" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes $1 124d
Will "Ojitos Lindos" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes $1 124d
Will "No Me Conoce - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime BUY Yes $1 124d
Will "un x100to" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes $1 124d
Will "Safaera" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes $1 124d
Will "Te Boté - Remix" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show BUY Yes $1 124d
Will "MIA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes $1 124d
Will "LA CANCIÓN" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes $1 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 +425.4% +375.4% 25% 25% +102.5%
≤90d 4 +425.4% +375.4% 25% 25% +102.5%
all 26 -19.2% -26.9% 4% 4% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 4% -41.8%
10% -33.9% 4% -47.4%
15% -40.2% 4% -52.5%
20% -46.1% 4% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.93 · official $168.93 (match) · 37 history records