Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x853c…bd03 world 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$147,862 (+18%) realized +$149,449 · open −$1,587
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate50%117W / 115L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$3,258per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$6,247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$69,482
politics 14% +$3,668
other 10% −$18,755
economics 2% +$1,972
tech 1% +$9,855
crypto 1% −$2,768
sports 0% +$1,123
finance 0% −$75
culture 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +11.0% +0.5% 54% 46% +32.1%
≤30d 110 -11.6% -20.0% 41% 31% -5.0%
≤90d 217 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 36% -1.5%
all 232 -1.5% -10.8% 50% 37% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 37% -1.6%
10% -19.4% 28% -11.0%
15% ← realistic here -27.2% 19% -19.6%
20% -34.3% 14% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$3,310) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,454 vs −$904 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$6,247
Realized+$149,449
Unrealized−$1,587
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses117 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions17
Markets (closed)232 / 249
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$3,258
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 43¢ 52¢ $4,731 $5,663 +$932 (+20%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $557 $196 −$361 (-65%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Yes 22¢ 2¢ $2,146 $181 −$1,965 (-92%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 61¢ 68¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+11%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 42¢ 13¢ $109 $34 −$75 (-69%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 32¢ $23 $32 +$8 (+37%)
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30? Yes 77¢ 36¢ $46 $22 −$24 (-53%)
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? No 19¢ 39¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+104%)
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+24%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 21¢ 17¢ $13 $11 −$3 (-19%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Yes 42¢ 8¢ $37 $8 −$30 (-80%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $86 $4 −$81 (-95%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 55¢ 25¢ $6 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $54 +$1 +3%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $1,910 +$227 +12%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $579 −$360 -62%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $600 −$119 -20%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $341 −$164 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $295 −$81 -27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1,390 +$234 +17%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $171 −$19 -11%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $284 −$132 -46%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $114 −$35 -30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $192 −$11 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $508 +$594 +117%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $461 −$98 -21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,128 −$294 -26%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7,992 +$13,208 +165%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $10,000 +$4,177 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $10,440 +$3,207 +31%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $1,964 +$252 +13%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $2,018 +$232 +12%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $633 +$1,212 +192%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2,260 −$927 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $3,596 +$374 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $9,121 +$3,672 +40%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $351 +$214 +61%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $272 +$235 +86%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $4,654 +$341 +7%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $60 +$22 +37%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 09 $407 −$393 -96%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 09 $353 −$91 -26%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $64 −$30 -47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $12,242 −$1,251 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $5,048 +$1,482 +29%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 8? Jun 07 $77 −$75 -97%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $162 +$326 +202%
Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 04 $82 +$52 +64%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1,111 −$89 -8%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 03 $129 +$26 +20%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? Jun 03 $106 −$72 -68%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Jun 03 $276 −$203 -74%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2? Jun 02 $8 +$3 +36%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,868 −$1,198 -31%
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026? May 30 $125 −$59 -47%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? May 30 $2 +$1 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $49,365 −$11,528 -23%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $34 +$19 +57%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? May 29 $892 −$643 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $3,862 −$936 -24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 29 $3,753 −$2,996 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 32¢ $442 59m
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? SELL No 96¢ $56 1h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY No 93¢ $7 1h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $414 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $416 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 61¢ $36 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $755 2h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $219 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 9¢ $247 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 29¢ $170 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 18¢ $486 2h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 10¢ $234 3h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 5¢ $114 3h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $108 3h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $112 3h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $168 3h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 3h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 3h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 3h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 3h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $328 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $64 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $389 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $5 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $1 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $603 4h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 13¢ $26 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $159 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,246.78 · official $6,246.78 (match) · 3500 history records