Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
85 0x853c…cb68 sports 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-4%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%90W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$64
other 20% +$35
crypto 12% −$28
culture 9% +$1
politics 7% −$2
finance 3% −$5
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +38.5% +25.3% 100% 100% +25.3%
≤30d 10 -14.9% -23.0% 40% 30% +27.1%
≤90d 59 -5.5% -14.5% 46% 37% +3.4%
all 164 -4.9% -13.9% 55% 35% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 35% -13.7%
10% -22.2% 27% -22.0%
15% -29.7% 23% -29.5%
20% -36.6% 18% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses90 / 74
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage133d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 164 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$12 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -14%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $4 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $5 −$1 -13%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $5 −$4 -74%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $20 +$27 +132%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $61 +$48 +80%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the player with the most assists in the 2025–2 May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 24 $10 +$7 +67%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 18 $25 −$2 -9%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 27 $3 $0 -17%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $1 $0 -49%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 27 $5 +$2 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 21 $3 +$3 +96%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 +$9 +86%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 22.5 Apr 18 $3 +$2 +65%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 22.5 Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 19.5 Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 17.5 Apr 15 $2 +$2 +116%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $2 +$2 +120%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 +$10 +206%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $30 +$24 +81%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $5 $0 -4%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers have the worst record in the NBA? Apr 08 $3 −$2 -61%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? Apr 02 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $3 +$3 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $42 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 4h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea BUY 52¢ $8 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 14d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 26¢ $4 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Berrettini 45¢ $4 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Berrettini 50¢ $5 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev SELL Rafael Jodar 13¢ $1 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 47¢ $5 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 26d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 30¢ $5 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 27d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 27d
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $23 39d
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 39d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? SELL Yes 93¢ $8 50d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 50d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 53d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 53d
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $2 60d
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $3 60d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes $1 60d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 67¢ $5 61d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 61d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 58¢ $2 64d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 46¢ $2 64d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-04-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 66d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 356 history records