Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x853e…4f04
crypto · 807 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$111
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses486 / 320
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)806 / 807
History coverage72d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 806 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$53
14 days−$53
30 days+$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Up 83¢ 78¢ $118 $111 −$7 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $121 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $81 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $72 +$25 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$26 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$7 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12AM ET Jun 09 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11PM ET Jun 09 $23 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5AM ET May 27 $57 −$48 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11PM ET May 27 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10PM ET May 27 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8PM ET May 27 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3PM ET May 26 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5AM ET May 26 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3AM ET May 26 $100 +$79 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2AM ET May 26 $18 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET May 26 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12AM ET May 26 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11PM ET May 26 $62 +$53 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10PM ET May 26 $46 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9PM ET May 26 $49 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8PM ET May 26 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7PM ET May 26 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3PM ET May 22 $41 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2PM ET May 22 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11AM ET May 22 $21 +$17 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9AM ET May 22 $21 +$13 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$60
other 1% −$61
sports 0% −$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $15 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $24 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $121 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $12 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $92 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $81 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $85 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $7 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -14.0% -22.2% 52% 42% -15.5%
≤30d 170 +1.7% -7.9% 59% 49% -5.6%
≤90d 806 +1.4% -8.2% 60% 48% -9.5%
all 806 +1.4% -8.2% 60% 48% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 48% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 40% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 31% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 23% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.68 · official $110.68 (match) · 2629 history records