Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:56:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

85 0x853e…1887 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$23 (+8%) realized +$33 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate33%3W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day10.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-32.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-25.0%	-32.1%	33%	22%	-4.9%
≤30d	9	-25.0%	-32.1%	33%	22%	-4.9%
≤90d	9	-25.0%	-32.1%	33%	22%	-4.9%
all	9	-25.0%	-32.1%	33%	22%	-4.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.1%	22%	-4.9%
10%	-38.6%	22%	-14.0%
15%	-44.5%	22%	-22.3%
20%	-50.0%	11%	-29.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 93% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.88 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized+$33

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses3 / 6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage4d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day10.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	Yes	59¢	40¢	$30	$20	−$10 (-33%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	Jun 28	$41	−$13	-33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	Jun 27	$40	+$16	+41%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	Jun 27	$14	−$14	-100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 26	$31	+$25	+83%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 26	$23	−$19	-84%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 25	$11	−$3	-29%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	Jun 24	$40	+$3	+8%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	Jun 24	$4	−$1	-20%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	Jun 24	$1	−$1	-74%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	BUY Yes	59¢	$31	1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	SELL Yes	56¢	$62	1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	BUY Yes	46¢	$21	3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	SELL Yes	42¢	$22	3h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	BUY Yes	40¢	$2	3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	SELL Yes	45¢	$2	3h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	BUY Yes	33¢	$4	4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	SELL Yes	53¢	$4	4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	BUY Yes	31¢	$15	5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	BUY Yes	62¢	$41	15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	SELL Yes	100¢	$56	15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	BUY Yes	70¢	$40	38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	BUY Yes	20¢	$14	38h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL Yes	84¢	$2	2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL Yes	78¢	$1	2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$4	2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL Yes	20¢	$4	2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$4	2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL Yes	21¢	$4	2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	36¢	$2	2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL Yes	4¢	$2	2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$4	2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	55¢	$10	2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	54¢	$10	2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	24¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.09 · official $20.34 (match) · 45 history records