Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x853f…d189 crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$517 (-14%) realized −$510 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%46W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day86.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$428
other 11% −$318
sports 6% +$195
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 46% -23.3%
≤30d 82 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 46% -23.3%
≤90d 82 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 46% -23.3%
all 82 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 46% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 46% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 37% -30.6%
15% -33.9% 33% -37.3%
20% -40.4% 24% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$42 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$510
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses46 / 36
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage2d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day86.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Team to Take First Corner Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$42 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $77 +$56 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$15 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $76 +$34 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$22 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$55 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $76 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $93 +$77 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$47 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $17 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 43m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.61 · official $7.61 (match) · 248 history records