Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:56:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8543…86fc politics 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 311d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-10%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$2
other 16% −$53
politics 13% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -10.4%
all 38 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 0% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -21.0%
10% -20.1% 0% -28.5%
15% -27.8% 0% -35.5%
20% -34.9% 0% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage311d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 39¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $37 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $14 −$2 -11%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $41 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $38 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $7 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 22–August 29? Sep 02 $5 $0 +8%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 20 $6 $0 -1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 17 $6 $0 +7%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Aug 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $37 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $37 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $23 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $18 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $40 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $8 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $41 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $41 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 64¢ $4 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 64¢ $33 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 66¢ $38 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $22 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $33 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $38 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $23 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $15 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.68 · official $36.50 (match) · 94 history records