Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:10:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8544…bd34
weather · 1536 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$64 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$70 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$822
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1480 / 6
Open positions50
Markets (closed)1486 / 1536
History coverage30d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day65.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 50 History 1486 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $275? No 100¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Up 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $330? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $450? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $325? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $270? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close at >$335 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 8 – Jun 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $240? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $425? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $146 Week of June 8 2026? No 99¢ 96¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% +$67
tech 5% −$1
other 4% +$1
finance 1% +$1
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $12 8m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 16m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 32m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $20 49m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY No 99¢ $5 53m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 54m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of t BUY No 99¢ $5 54m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 55m
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $245? BUY No 99¢ $3 55m
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $275? BUY No 100¢ $10 56m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $142 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 57m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $146 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 57m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $122 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 57m
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $425? BUY No 99¢ $5 59m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $375? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $380? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $325? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $325? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $425? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 380 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1483 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1486 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 1486 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $822.26 · official $822.09 (match) · 3500 history records