Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
85 0x8545…1fbc crypto 294 markets active 1h ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$108 (+2%) realized +$107 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%171W / 120L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$34
other 32% +$97
finance 10% +$13
tech 6% +$5
world 3% −$9
politics 3% −$29
weather 2% −$6
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.3% -0.2% 93% 50% -3.3%
≤30d 17 +8.6% -1.8% 88% 41% -3.7%
≤90d 149 -54.2% -58.6% 34% 19% -24.4%
all 291 +3.9% -6.0% 59% 41% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 41% -7.4%
10% -15.0% 30% -16.3%
15% -23.2% 21% -24.4%
20% -30.7% 16% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses171 / 120
Open positions3
Markets (closed)291 / 294
History coverage621d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 89¢ 89¢ $133 $134 +$1 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 88¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$7 +21%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$5 -31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 19 $73 +$4 +5%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +18%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 18 $67 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 +$3 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 08 $9 $0 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9PM ET May 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $4 −$3 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1? May 02 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14? Apr 14 $16 +$4 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Apr 14 $47 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Apr 13 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $47 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 8? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 22? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 1? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 15? Apr 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 30? Apr 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 10? Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 3? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 30? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 8? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 11? Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 6? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 6? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 9? Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 11? Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 12? Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 30? Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 17? Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 12? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 12? Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 20? Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 25? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 10? Apr 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 6? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 4? Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $9 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $19 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $8 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $33 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 53¢ $10 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $8 29h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $19 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $89 38h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $35 40h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $41 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $1 43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 75¢ $6 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $8 44h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $73 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $37 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $8 2d
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 81¢ $8 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $8 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $8 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $11 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL No 95¢ $57 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 90¢ $5 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 94¢ $57 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 6d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL No 96¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.99 · official $161.99 (match) · 860 history records