Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8545…22bb crypto 143 markets active 1d ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$410 (-16%) realized −$449 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate36%46W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$85
14 days−$67
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$371
world 16% −$117
other 5% +$4
sports 3% +$11
politics 0% +$12
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -64.5% -67.9% 0% 0% -56.8%
≤30d 21 -14.0% -22.2% 19% 19% -36.5%
≤90d 105 -30.9% -37.4% 30% 23% -26.9%
all 129 -24.3% -31.5% 36% 25% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 25% -28.0%
10% -38.1% 16% -34.9%
15% -44.0% 12% -41.2%
20% -49.5% 9% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$449
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses46 / 83
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)129 / 143
History coverage117d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 12¢ 79¢ $5 $34 +$29 (+573%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 100¢ $4 $26 +$22 (+556%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 22¢ 77¢ $5 $17 +$12 (+243%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 7¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 35¢ 9¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-74%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-95%)
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -60%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -69%
Deel IPO before 2027? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $39 −$13 -33%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $13 −$12 -92%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 11 $17 −$5 -28%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $23 −$2 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $3 +$17 +631%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $9 +$8 +90%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $9 −$9 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $15 −$5 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $10 +$14 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 27 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$71 +1348%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 28 $72 −$71 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 28 $69 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 27 $165 −$52 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 39¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Deel IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $3 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 2d
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 2d
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $12 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 6d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $21 6d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $23 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.82 · official $149.84 (match) · 305 history records